G20会议关于能源和矿产品的论述及我的策略
Global energy and minerals markets
G-20 consideration of global energy and minerals markets reflects the importance of
resource consumption, production, investment and trade to the world economy.
Global demand for energy and minerals commodities is set to increase significantly
over coming decades driven by a strong world economy, rising incomes, and ongoing
industrialisation and urbanisation in many economies. While physical stocks exist to
meet demand and investment is increasing, the expansion of supply to date has
struggled to keep pace with demand growth, resulting in significant increases in
prices. We agreed that enhancing global trade by strengthening markets, and ensuring
sustainability by promoting investment and encouraging efficiency, are the best ways
to deliver lasting resource security.
We discussed the challenges to macroeconomic policy presented by energy and
minerals price cycles. Monetary authorities remain vigilant in keeping inflation low
and stable and stand ready to contain second-round price effects. Flexible domestic
economies and exchange rates help facilitate adjustment to large movements in traded
goods prices. Finance ministers are also focused on key fiscal challenges such as
managing revenue surges and the appropriate level of energy subsidies. We agreed
that further reform of energy subsidies is a priority in order to improve fiscal
sustainability, better target poverty, and ensure that price signals work to expand
supply and induce efficiency.
We reaffirmed the commitment we made in the G-20 Accord for Sustained Growth in
2004 to direct domestic policies toward creating a favourable overall investment
climate and enhancing domestic and international competition. We discussed how the
current resources boom can be harnessed for growth and development, highlighting
the importance of sound domestic policy and effective governance for boosting
investment.
[ 本帖最后由 阿牛哥哥 于 2006-11-19 18:11 编辑 ]
发表于:2006-11-19 09:37只看该作者
2楼
羡慕哥哥,英语好棒哦!
韬客社区www.talkfx.co
发表于:2006-11-19 09:45只看该作者
3楼
这些贱人们。
从这些话来看不会对市场有多大影响。
韬客社区www.talkfx.co
发表于:2006-11-19 09:48只看该作者
4楼
呵呵,政治言论,需要和以前的言论比较发掘其中的细微差别,才能知道可能的发展趋势。
韬客社区www.talkfx.co
5楼
G20声明要点(本人英译中水平有限-中文表达不够准确,可能会词不达意)
1、“能源及矿产品需求将在未来几十年飞速增长"。这是对未来的预测;
2、“至今为止,供应的扩张难以跟上需求增长的步伐,引起了能源及矿产品价格的飙升”。这是对过去已知的描述;
3、各国货币当局对通胀继续保持警惕,时刻准备着抑制由于能源及矿产品价格上涨传导的物价上涨。
分析:
1、需求在未来几十年飞速增长,不表示当前(几个月到1年)能源及矿产品需求大幅下降;
2、能源价格与加元汇率并非在时间序列上保持100%的正相关性(这一点可以从USDCAD和石油价格的图表上观察得出)。影响加元汇率的除了油价外,还有经济数据的表现。加拿大经济数据预期到本月末都会非常差劲。
综上所述,维持到本月底做空加元的策略。
目标:
USDCAD - 1.1770
EURCAD - 1.4940-1.53
GBPCAD - 2 - 2.02
[ 本帖最后由 阿牛哥哥 于 2006-11-19 18:05 编辑 ]
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发表于:2006-11-19 10:13只看该作者
6楼
发表于:2006-11-19 13:10只看该作者
7楼
以前很少关注这些事件。
首次看关于G20的报道,似乎也很官样文章
谢谢牛牛发贴
韬客社区www.talkfx.co
发表于:2006-11-19 14:35只看该作者
9楼
阿牛,关于声明的理解不得不说一下
能源需求增长但又怎样呢??长期影响不了短期,还是要按自身的规律运行。2020年石油最少130美元一桶,你现在能买么 ?才56美元一桶
还有加拿大经济数据不要带猜测的成分,特别是甲鱼已经下跌的情况下
韬客社区www.talkfx.co
发表于:2006-11-19 14:49只看该作者
10楼
谢谢牛牛发贴
韬客社区www.talkfx.co
发表于:2006-11-19 15:00只看该作者
12楼
阿牛哥哥 星期一英镑能有什么走势?
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13楼
原帖由 鸠摩罗什 于 2006-11-19 23:00 发表 阿牛哥哥 星期一英镑能有什么走势?
韬客社区www.talkfx.co
发表于:2006-11-19 15:18只看该作者
14楼
原帖由 阿牛哥哥 于 2006-11-19 22:51 发表 我不反对你有你的理解. 我的意见是CAD继续狂跌,就这么一句话.
韬客社区www.talkfx.co
发表于:2006-11-19 15:46只看该作者
15楼
ding
韬客社区www.talkfx.co
16楼
更正
键盘输入错误, GBPCAD目标为2.20-2.22
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