Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey: Government shouldn't react to AUD strength Joe Hockey speaking from Sydney: 1. Bullish on Asia's prospects, opportunities for Australia 2. Can't envisage mini budget, double dissolution 3. Inflows, investor demand helping fuel demand for AUD

.... "I think low interest rates are doing the sorts of things they normally do in most respects
," Stevens said in response to questions after a speech in Sydney today. "I'd still maintain up to this point that we're doing what can reasonably be done. But if there's more that can reasonably be done at some point, then obviously we'd do that
. But I'm content right now." Stevens's address today was a broad sweep across the 2008 crisis and major nations' responses, and looked at how the recovery could be accelerated. The Group of 20 nations' growth pledge could help revive activity
, Stevens said. "Unless we think the tendency for human optimism has been completely drummed out of us, animal spirits in the 'real economy' will surely improve at some point
," he said. "Reforms on the supply side of the G-20 economies can impart a sense of dynamism and opportunity." 'Huge potential' He said there is "huge potential" for public and private investment in infrastructure if governance, risk-sharing and other issues are "successfully tackled." Efforts to complete the main financial regulatory initiatives should deliver both "a safer system and less uncertainty," without unnecessarily crimping growth, he said. "The highly accommodative financial conditions will then have a more powerful effect in engendering real growth," Stevens said. "A rising confidence dynamic could unfold. The prospects for profitable investments by businesses would be significantly improved."

awk 发表于 2014-7-22 22:37
这是今天Stevens对"animal spirits"表达的原文, 似乎可以看出, 他本人并非特别愿意当鸽派:-)

“The inflation outcomes are in line with the RBA’s recent forecasts and reinforce their message that what is required is a period of stability in interest rates,” said Michael Workman, an economist at Commonwealth Bank.

...The recent removal of a carbon tax by Parliament could also shave 0.7 percentage points off inflation in the third quarter, Deutsche Bank estimates....

awk 发表于 2014-7-23 18:45
按照今天以前的调查, 36%市场预期RBA年底降息.

PerthWA 发表于 2014-7-24 09:23
这个真不好说，去年一年悉尼房价上涨了17%，不是和大天朝学习的吗

20140724 穆迪：悉尼的房价接近合理水平, 澳大利亚新南威尔士的房价可能过热, 澳大利亚大部分州的房价处于合理水平.

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.5 per cent. Growth in the global economy is continuing at a moderate pace, helped by firmer conditions in the advanced countries. China's growth remains generally in line with policymakers' objectives
. Commodity prices in historical terms remain high, but some of those important to Australia have declined this year
. Financial conditions overall remain very accommodative. Long-term interest rates and risk spreads remain very low
. Emerging market economies are receiving capital inflows. Volatility in many financial prices is currently unusually low. Markets appear to be attaching a very low probability to any rise in global interest rates, or other adverse event, over the period ahead. In Australia, growth was firmer around the turn of the year, but this resulted mainly from very strong increases in resource exports as new capacity came on line; smaller increases in such exports are likely in coming quarters. Moderate growth has been occurring in consumer demand. A strong expansion in housing construction is now under way
. At the same time, resources sector investment spending is starting to decline significantly
. Signs of improvement in investment intentions in some other sectors are emerging, but these plans remain tentative as firms wait for more evidence of improved conditions before committing to significant expansion. Public spending is scheduled to be subdued
. Overall, the Bank still expects growth to be a little below trend over the year ahead
. There has been some improvement in indicators for the labour market this year
, but it will probably be some time yet before unemployment declines consistently
. Recent data showed an increase in inflation, with both headline and underlying measures affected by the decline in the exchange rate last year. But growth in wages has declined noticeably and is expected to remain relatively modest over the period ahead
, which should keep inflation consistent with the target even with lower levels of the exchange rate. Monetary policy remains accommodative. Interest rates are very low and for some borrowers have continued to edge lower over recent months
. Savers continue to look for higher returns in response to low rates on safe instruments. Credit growth has picked up a little, including most recently to businesses. The increase in dwelling prices has been slower this year than last year
, though prices continue to rise
. The exchange rate remains high by historical standards, particularly given the declines in key commodity prices, and hence is offering less assistance than it might in achieving balanced growth in the economy.
Looking ahead, continued accommodative monetary policy should provide support to demand and help growth to strengthen over time. Inflation is expected to be consistent with the 2–3 per cent target over the next two years
. In the Board's judgement, monetary policy is appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target
. On present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates.

awk 发表于 2014-8-5 13:05
RBA Statement 全文

goodtrader 发表于 2014-8-5 13:24
颜色都是你自己标得吗？

awk 发表于 2014-8-5 13:43
是的. 希望给想看原文但有不想仔细看的朋友一个提示. (用色方式可能与某些汇友的习惯相反.....)

Australia's unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points (based on unrounded estimates) to 6.4% in July 2014 (seasonally adjusted). The increased unemployment rate resulted from increased participation with the number of persons in the labour force increasing by 43,400 persons
, and the number of employed persons decreasing by 300. The net result was the number of unemployed persons increased by 43,700 to 789,000 in July 2014 (seasonally adjusted). In trend terms the unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage points (based on unrounded estimates) to 6.1% in July 2014, following a revision to the June 2014 estimate. The number of unemployed persons in July 2014 increased by 9,500 to 756,700. Trend estimates reduce the impact of the irregular component of the seasonally adjusted series and can provide a better a better basis for analysing the underlying behaviour of the series. In original terms (where the seasonal and irregular influences have not been removed) the number of employed persons decreased by 11,900 persons between June and July 2014 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 19,300. The seasonally adjusted increase in unemployment was stronger than the increase in original terms, reflecting that historically there is usually a decrease in unemployed persons in July in original terms. The incoming rotation group for July 2014 had a lower proportion of employed persons and a higher proportion of unemployed persons compared to the sample it replaced. Therefore the incoming rotation group contributed more persons to the labour force and to the increased unemployment rate. The incoming rotation group contributed about one-third of the absolute change in the number of persons unemployed and 40% of the absolute change in male unemployment. July 2014 saw the seasonally adjusted participation rate increase by 0.1 percentage points to 64.8%. The trend participation rate was unchanged at 64.7% in July 2014. The seasonally adjusted number of employed persons decreased by 300 in July 2014 to 11,576,600 persons. In trend terms, employment increased by 4,600 persons to 11,582,200 persons in July 2014. The employment to population ratio, which expresses the number of employed persons as a percentage of the civilian population aged 15 years and over, decreased 0.1 percentage points to 60.7% (seasonally adjusted). The trend employment to population ratio remained steady at 60.8%, following a revision to the June 2014 estimate. ............